ARS Advances Screwworm Control With AI-Powered Modeling

By Scout Nelson

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) is using predictive modeling and artificial intelligence to improve the detection and management of New World screwworm (NWS) infestations. Researchers are analyzing environmental, ecological, and historical data to identify areas where the pest is most likely to emerge and spread.

The models evaluate factors such as habitat suitability, temperature, rainfall, host preferences, and previous outbreaks. This information helps animal health agencies focus surveillance efforts and direct resources to locations facing the highest risk.

ARS developed the modeling system to support timely decision-making and improve pest control strategies. The forecasts help agencies determine where monitoring activities, fly trapping, and other management measures can be most effective.

A major focus of the effort is improving the use of the sterile insect technique, a proven method for controlling NWS populations. By releasing sterile flies into affected areas, officials can disrupt the pest's reproductive cycle and gradually reduce infestations.

According to USDA officials, predictive modeling helps strengthen eradication efforts by identifying the most effective locations for intervention. The technology allows agencies to act proactively rather than waiting for infestations to become widespread.

Kim Lohmeyer, director of the ARS Knipling-Bushland Livestock Insects Research Laboratory in Kerrville, Texas, said predictive modeling serves as a “forewarning system” that helps guide surveillance and management decisions. The approach enables officials to monitor high-risk areas more closely and respond more quickly when threats are detected.

Researchers note that forecasting tools cannot account for every situation, particularly events involving the movement of infested animals. For that reason, livestock producers are encouraged to follow animal movement regulations and work closely with state animal health officials.

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