Production prospects for the U.S. winter wheat crop are the worst in recent memory in core areas of the Great Plains following a three-year drought, farmers and crop experts said.
“I don’t know how to put it into words how bad it is,” said farmer Gary Millershaski in southwest Kansas, among the areas hit hardest by drought. He expects to abandon 85% of his wheat acres and said this year’s harvest will be his farm’s smallest ever. Some seeds planted last fall barely emerged from parched, cracked soils.
A historically poor crop from the No. 5 wheat exporter leaves the world more vulnerable to shortages, with the future uncertain for a deal allowing the Black Sea export of Ukraine’s grain. U.S. wheat stocks are projected to fall to a nine-year low by June, and a smaller crop could result in higher bread and staple food prices.
Rains in the last week arrived too late to significantly benefit stunted wheat in western Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, prompting some growers to write off part of their crop. More acres could be abandoned before harvest begins in June.
High winds compounded problems, sand-blasting dry fields in many areas, including the Texas Panhandle. “It’s really just tragic to see the erosion from wind injury,” said Jourdan Bell, an agronomist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service in Amarillo.
Kansas and Oklahoma are the biggest producers of hard red winter wheat, the largest U.S. wheat class, which is milled into flour for bread.
Weekly wheat condition ratings from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are among the worst for this time of yearin records dating to 1986, with less than 30% considered good or excellent.
However, overall global wheat production is expected to be smaller in 2023. Global importers have been working through supplies, leaving less margin for error this year, said Matt Herrington, an analyst with consulting firm World Perspectives Inc. The USDA has projected world wheat stocks to fall to a seven-year low by the end of the 2022/23 marketing year.
“We are essentially at a tipping point where if we do end up with bigger production problems somewhere – say, a massive drought in Australia – we could be at a point where wheat supplies globally start to tighten,” Herrington said.
Some observers say falling futures prices have masked the gravity of problems with the U.S. crop.
“I just don’t think in the last 25 to 30 years, we have seen anything quite like this in the southern Plains,” said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. “The market does not seem to be reflecting the seriousness of it right now,” Schulte said.
Source: hellenicshippingnews.com
Photo Credit: GettyImages-Vadven
Categories: Kansas, Crops, Wheat, Weather