The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook for the U.S. is painting a grim picture for many drought-plagued areas of the Plains. While the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts drought to persist from Kansas to Texas, forecasters also expect drought to improve in parts of Nebraska and Iowa and even disappear in some areas.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center points out the drought situation across the country has dramatically improved for many areas. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is currently near its lowest point since July 2020. Drought peaked in October of 2022 at nearly 63% of the country, and since then, it's steadily declined across much of the West, northern Great Plains, Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
Areas of the country seeing relentless drought conditions growing even worse are western Kansas, western Oklahoma and the western half of Texas. This week's Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates those geographies hardest-hit by drought won't see much change through July.
“Persistence is more likely for southeast Colorado and much of Kansas with drought so well entrenched in these areas that improvement will be difficult,” the Seasonal Drought Outlook stated. “The highest confidence for removal exists across the Dakotas, Nebraska, eastern Montana and Wyoming.”
Agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass thinks parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado could see better chances for precipitation as we head into May. He thinks those increased chances of could also fall across Oklahoma and Texas.
“This is going to be something we're going to watch very, very carefully because of the extensive drought in that area,” says Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions. “So, we have to kind of balance it out. Right. We need the moisture in those areas. We need the moisture in the western Corn Belt, but it is slowing down some of this early season fieldwork.”
While the chances of rain could improve over the coming weeks, Snodgrass says he’s still aligned with NWS in thinking drought conditions continue to persist in those areas. He says it will take a heavy amount of rain to help those areas climb out of the extreme drought.
“The trouble is some of the drought right now anchored in Kansas and Oklahoma, Colorado and Texas is rivaling the drought of ‘11 and ‘12. It's rivaling the 1950s. It's rivaling the 1930s in terms of how dry it's been since late last summer,” says Snograss. “To undo a drought that intense, and that long lasting, just takes a tremendous amount of effort.”
While drought relief is wanted in those areas, Snodgrass points out too much rain could result In massive flooding.
“There needs to be the slow, methodical increase of precipitation in May and in June, to make us not worry so much about the rest of summer. But right now, I'd have to say that the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, they have a pretty good handle on what we expect the drought situation look like across the Plains.”
With no moisture in the soil profile, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also watching the development of El Nino. As the U.S. transitions away from La Nina and to El Nino sooner than sone forecasters expected, it could bring more chances of rain.
Source: agweb.com
Photo Credit: istock-AlenaMozhjer
Categories: Kansas, Weather