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State Farmers Eyeing Record Oat Yield, Cotton Acres
Kansas Ag Connection - 08/13/2019

Based on Aug. 1 conditions, Kansas's 2019 corn production is forecast at 810 million bushels, 26 percent above last year's production, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Area to be harvested for grain, at 6.0 million acres, is up 20 percent from a year ago. Yield is forecast at 135 bushels per acre, up 6 bushels from last year.

Sorghum for grain production in Kansas is forecast at 194 million bushels, down 17 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 2.45 million acres, is down 8 percent from 2018. Yield is forecast at 79 bushels per acre, down 9 bushels from last year.

Kansas's soybean production is forecast at 191 million bushels, down 7 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 4.55 million acres, is 3 percent below 2018. Yield is forecast at 42 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from last year.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 350 million bushels, up 26 percent from last year's crop. Area for grain, at 6.60 million acres, is down 10 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 53 bushels per acre, 15 bushels above last year.

Cotton production is forecast at 337,000 bales, down 1 percent from last year. Record acreage for harvest, at 170,000 acres, is up 18,000 acres from 2018. Yield is forecasted at 952 pounds per acre, down 125 pounds from last year.

Oat production is forecast to be 1.68 million bushels, up 90 percent from last year. Harvested area for grain of 25,000 acres is up 7,000 acres from a year earlier. Record yield per acre, at 67 bushels, is up 18 bushels from a year ago.

Alfalfa hay production of 1.96 million tons is forecast to be 8 percent below last year. Expected yield, at 3.50 tons per acre, is unchanged ton from last year. All other hay production of 3.23 million tons is forecast to be up 23 percent from a year ago. Expected yield, at 1.90 tons per acre, is up 0.4 ton from last year.

Survey respondents who reported acreage as not yet planted for corn, cotton, sorghum, and soybeans in fourteen States for the Acreage report, released June 28, 2019, were re-contacted in July. Excessive rainfall had led to planting delays and challenges at the time of the survey, leaving a portion of acres still to be planted for corn in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; cotton in Arkansas; sorghum in Kansas; and soybeans in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

When planting delays occur NASS has established procedures and processes in place to re-contact respondents. In addition to the updated survey information, NASS considered Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage information as well as satellite-based indications of acreage to update planted and harvested acreage estimates for this report.

NASS estimates of planted area are always larger than the certified acres reported by FSA because of definitional differences and the fact that some producers do not participate in USDA programs and therefore do not report their acreage to FSA. It is also important to note that data are reported to FSA over an extended period of time, with varying due dates across the country, and is historically incomplete in early August. NASS has carefully analyzed these data for many years and has determined they normally don't become nearly complete until September for cotton and October for corn, soybeans, and sorghum. A detailed description of how NASS incorporates the FSA certified acreage information into the estimating process can be found at www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Understanding_Statistics/FSA_Acreage.pdf.

Based on all of the data sources described above, planted and harvested area estimates for corn, soybeans, cotton, and sorghum were updated and included in this report. All States in the estimating program for these crops were subject to review and updating.

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