By Jamie Martin
America’s reputation as a strong agricultural exporter is under pressure. A study from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University shows that US agricultural imports are growing faster than exports, reversing decades of trade surpluses.
"For most of recent history, the U.S. was a net agricultural exporter. But in the last couple of years, that has reversed, and what used to be a persistent surplus has turned into a persistent and growing deficit, where we're importing much more than we export. Current projections estimate that the agricultural trade deficit will reach $49 billion by the end of 2025," said lead author William Ridley, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U. of I.
At the same time, the US is exporting less of its traditional row crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. One of the main reasons is the ongoing trade dispute with China. Tariffs on both sides disrupted billions in agricultural trade, with US soybean exports to China dropping by over 70% between 2017 and 2018.
Although a brief recovery followed the 2020 Phase One deal, trade has again slowed dramatically. China has found new partners such as Brazil and Argentina, which have expanded farmland, improved logistics, and now dominate global soybean exports.
Researchers warn that the US advantage is eroding as other nations boost agricultural productivity and infrastructure. Even if tariffs were removed, they argue, trade with China may not fully return, as other nations continue to fill the gap and China moves toward greater self-sufficiency.
Photo Credit: istock-fangxianuo
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