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Trade Uncertainty Adds Pressure on Farm Income

Trade Uncertainty Adds Pressure on Farm Income


By Jamie Martin

Farm financial stress continues to deepen across the United States as farmers work through another year of shrinking margins and rising economic pressure. Many major crops and specialty crops remain below breakeven, and working capital has dropped significantly. Lenders report that most farm borrowers are unlikely to see strong profits heading into 2026, creating major challenges for the rural economy.

Trade-related losses have made the situation worse. Export declines in key markets, including China, have resulted in billions of dollars in lost sales. Although new trade frameworks offer hope for future opportunities, export volumes have not yet increased. Cash prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton remain low, and producers who sold during harvest lows have not benefited from recent announcements.

Corn farmers expanded acreage in 2025, planting nearly 100 million acres as market uncertainty grew. With average production costs at approximately $900 per acre, farmers invested about $90 billion into their corn crop. Even with strong yield expectations and a national average price of $4 per bushel, losses are expected to exceed $150 per acre, totaling more than $15 billion nationwide. USDA data shows similar negative trends across all major crops.

From 2023/24 through 2025/26, returns above total costs remain negative even after including crop insurance and ad hoc programs. Combined losses across principal crops reached more than $20 billion in 2023/24 and over $34 billion in both 2024/25 and 2025/26. Specialty crop farmers continue to struggle with high labor and regulatory costs.

Federal assistance provided through the American Relief Act of 2025 and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has helped, but not enough to cover more than $50 billion in accumulated losses over three crop years. While new farm bill enhancements will begin in 2026 and 2027, farmers need bridge support now.

As the 2026 planting season approaches, farmers must secure financing, but lenders often cannot count federal aid until it is confirmed. The administration’s pending $12 billion trade aid package is vital to help farmers manage ongoing financial strain. Timely assistance will strengthen rural communities and support continued agricultural production during a difficult economic period.

Photo Credit: gettyimages-artqu


Categories: National

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