The upcoming annual tour of Kansas wheat fields organized by the Wheat Quality Council is expected to reveal challenging crop conditions. This forecast is based on estimates gathered from surrounding Plains states, where the latest USDA condition report ratings and feedback from producers have indicated a distressing outlook for the state's crop.
The persisting drought in the Southern Plains has exacerbated the situation, with severe to exceptional drought prevailing in major wheat-producing areas. Recent data from the US Drought Monitor map shows the widespread severity of the drought in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado—states known for their significant production of hard red winter wheat.
These conditions have a direct impact on the winter wheat crop ratings for each state, which are evaluated using a rating system based on different categories. Of the five states, only Colorado and Texas show improved crop ratings compared to the previous year, although both states had exceptionally poor ratings in 2022.
Colorado's current rating is 21.7% below the 1986-2023 average, while Texas is 15.4% below this average. Kansas, being the largest wheat producer, has recorded its second-worst crop rating ever, with a rating of 414, 35.1% below its average. Similarly, Nebraska's rating of 486 is the second-worst ever, 28.5% below its historical average. Oklahoma's rating of 426 is the sixth worst since 1986 and 33.0% below its average.
These ratings suggest that yields are likely to fall below the trend, with a low harvested-to-planted ratio similar to the previous year. The challenging conditions imposed by the ongoing drought are expected to have a significant impact on wheat production in the region.
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Categories: Kansas, Crops, Wheat