Recent reports from USDA provide insight into the supply prospects for the 2024 winter wheat crop. The Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings publication on January 12, 2024, showed U.S. farmers planted 34.425 million acres of winter wheat for 2024, down about 6 percent from the 36.699 million planted for 2023. This is still the second-highest winter wheat seedings number in the last eight years. Texas planted 5.9 million acres compared to 6.4 million last year; Oklahoma planted 4.3 million compared to 4.6 million. Kansas, the top winter wheat producing state in the nation, planted 7.5 million acres for 2024, down from 8.1 million last year.
Over the last three years, the average harvested-to-planted percentage for winter wheat is about 71 percent. With a trendline yield of about 51 bushels per acre and 34.425 million planted acres, an early estimate of 2024 winter wheat production is 1.246 billion bushels, around last year’s production and a little lower than the 10-year average production. Winter wheat production in 2023 was 1.248 billion bushels. The 10-year average production level is 1.286 billion bushels. A higher expected yield and harvested-to-plated ratio are expected to compensate for this season’s lower acreage.
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Categories: Kansas, Crops, Wheat, Weather