By Jamie Martin
US soybean growers face a challenging harvest season as the China trade dispute continues. The American Soybean Association (ASA) cautions that farmers cannot endure a prolonged loss of their largest customer. In a letter to the president, ASA President Caleb Ragland urged a deal that lifts duties and includes meaningful soybean purchases. A White House statement said the administration is working to open markets and level the playing field for American producers.
The ASA’s accompanying analysis highlights the core issue: tariffs make US soybeans roughly 20% more expensive than South American offerings. As a result, China has not placed forward orders for the months ahead. By this time of year, Chinese buyers typically have about 14% of expected US needs on the books, compared with 27% going into the 2022 harvest. Instead, China imported record volumes from Brazil between April and July, swelling soymeal inventories and pressuring crusher margins. To reassure feed mills, traders also announced an Argentine soymeal sale to China for fall delivery.
Overall export sales for the upcoming US crop trail the five-year average by a wide margin, leaving farm finances strained by weak prices and higher input and equipment costs. Futures briefly reacted to public calls for large Chinese purchases, but many producers doubt that scale-up is realistic under current tariff structures.
Tight demand is already affecting logistics. A Northern Plains analyst reports some North Dakota elevators may limit or refuse new-crop soybean deliveries at harvest. Farmers with on-farm storage are expected to prioritize soybeans, delaying corn harvest or using bag storage to free bin capacity. Similar knock-on effects are likely in Minnesota and South Dakota. The ASA emphasizes that resolving trade barriers promptly would help restore export flows, improve price discovery, and reduce the risk of bottlenecks across the grain handling system this fall.
Photo Credit: istock-ds70
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